Cabang pelaburan dan perdagangan Public Bank, Public Investment Bank Berhad (PIVB) menyatakan bahawa harga RON 95 dan diesel boleh naik dalam beberapa bulan akan datang jika subsidi bahan api kerajaan dan had harga dikaji semula.
Menurut laporan FMT, PIVB menjangkakan had harga subsidi semasa sebanyak RM 2.05 untuk RON 95 dan RM 2.15 untuk diesel Euro 5 B10 akan melalui semakan semula tidak lama lagi, dan berkemungkinan meningkat melebihi harga semasa.
Ini berikutan unjuran serupa yang dibuat oleh Maybank Investment Bank (Maybank IB) pada September 2022, yang memberi amaran tentang kenaikan harga mendadak, jika sistem subsidi bahan api semasa dihapuskan, dan harga terapung mengikut harga minyak mentah global.
Baca juga: Subsidi minyak RON95 ikut cc kenderaan tak adil, bagaimana pula pelaksanaannya? – Penganalisa
PIVB mengatakan bahawa harga bahan api semasa RON 95 boleh setinggi RM 3.22/liter jika bukan kerana subsidi bahan api.
Had harga bahan api semasa telah dilaksanakan sejak Februari 2021, yang diturunkan daripada had harga bahan api sebelumnya iaitu RM 2.08 (RON 95) dan RM 2.18 (diesel) yang diperkenalkan pada 2019.
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PIVB seterusnya menyatakan bahawa pelarasan beransur-ansur kepada harga bersubsidi pada separuh kedua 2023 “boleh mendorong inflasi utama ke arah had atas unjuran rasmi sebanyak 2.8 peratus kepada 3.8 peratus“.
Baca juga: Subsidi akan dirombak, RON95 & diesel di M’sia pada 2023 dijangka ikut harga pasaran global
Penyingkiran selanjutnya subsidi untuk 20 peratus teratas (T20) daripada golongan berpendapatan melalui mekanisme subsidi bahan api yang disasarkan (bagi kumpulan B40 dan M40) boleh meningkatkan inflasi sebanyak 0.45 peratus kepada 0.75 peratus setiap tahun. Bagaimanapun, pada 2022, kumpulan pendapatan T20 mendapat manfaat daripada 35 peratus subsidi bahan api.
Pada Mei 2022, Menteri Kewangan ketika itu Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz sebelum ini menganggarkan bahawa subsidi bahan api akan menelan kos sebanyak RM 28 bilion pada 2022, peningkatan mendadak daripada RM 11 bilion pada 2021.
Bagaimanapun, selepas 5 bulan pertama 2022, Datuk Seri Zafrul berkata jumlah subsidi dijangka mencecah RM 30 bilion untuk sepanjang tahun (termasuk elektrik dan LPG), yang mana lebih RM 15 bilion akan memanfaatkan kumpulan T20 dan bukannya kumpulan B40 dan M40.
